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Cake day: July 22nd, 2023

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  • I really hope there is more gamesmanship going on behind the scenes at his office than ‘this doesn’t add up’. But I’m a little skeptical because just game this thing out:

    The west claims to 100% support Ukraine yet so far have only done enough to be sure they can stay in the fight. Not enough to outright win. What do outside observers do with that info? If I was China I would absolutely see this as hesitation on the part of the west and recognize that until the west actually does go all in, this will be a source of instability that I can build on to increase my influence in the world. So of course I’m going to play both sides as much as I can get away with, at least until there’s a indication that the west’s stance on this is changing.




  • IMO it’s even worse than that. At least from what I gather from the AI/Singularity communities I follow. For them, AGI is the end goal - a creative thinking AI capable of deduction far greater than humanity. The company that owns that suddenly has the capability to solve all manner of problems that are slowing down technological advancement. Obviously owning that would be worth trillions.

    However it’s really hard to see through the smoke that the Altmans etc. are putting up - how much of it is actual genuine prediction and how much is fairy tales they’re telling to get more investment?

    And I’d have a hard time believing it isn’t mostly the latter because while LLMs have made some pretty impressive advancements, they still can’t have specialized discussions about pretty much anything without hallucinating answers. I have a test I use for each new generation of LLMs where I interview them about a book I’m relatively familiar with and even with the newest ChatGPT model, it still makes up a ton of shit, even often contradicting its own answers in that thread, all the while absolutely confident that it’s familiar with the source material.

    Honestly, I’ll believe they’re capable of advancing AI when we get an AI that can say ‘I actually am not sure about that, let me do a search…’ or something like that.