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Cake day: June 7th, 2023

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  • How does this argument work, the military spending of the Nazis was insane in the build up to the war, up to 40% in 1939, no such numbers in Russia. Even now it’s just estimated at 10% and they clearly need all of it just to fight the war in Ukraine. How are they ever gonna steamroll Nato with those numbers, there is no tangible proof that they are planning for this.

    The Putin is Hitler mantra also doesn’t make any sense, he has been a moderate (all be it an authoritarian) politician for decades, and now he suddenly is the rebirth of Hitler. Just looking at his politics he’s clearly not a fascist.

    We’ve been sold that Ukraine can win this war militarily, and the collective west can cripple the Russian economy with sanctions alone. Now that this turns out to be complete BS, they (a subset of western politicians) are looking for a way out, and clearly their preferred way is further escalations. So now they are selling us even more BS to justify this.





  • 100% agree, no longer being oil dependent would make the middle east a saver place (as well as having many other advantages).

    But even the green revolution needs cheap labor, recourses, and rare-earth metals. Countries that do not want to play game and want to nationalize key industries for instance, will be coerced financially or militarily by greater powers (be it the West, China, or Russia).

    So the idea of one country being worse than the other is not really relevant and moreover a known strategy for getting war support. I am happy that I don’t live in Iran or Saudi Arabia, but escalating conflict with either of them will not improve anybody’s life. Look at Syria or Libya.





  • The world of geopolitics is a world without police, so I agree that the invasion is a war crime, but in practice there is not much we can do that doesn’t make the situation worse.

    In my opinion the best we can hope for is peace by means of a balance of power.

    The lack of credible enforcement of international law is made very clear by the Iraq war, a war of aggression where the perpetrators were never held to account because the US was powerful enough to prevent that.

    I don’t think it’s morally bad to be pragmatic in that sense, if trying to punish Russia leads to nuclear annihilation.


  • I’m not saying Ukraine doesn’t have the right to defend itself, but the west is not Ukraine and has a broader responsibility (and seems currently mostly concerned with destabilizing Russia regardless of the cost of Ukrainian lives).

    Russia made clear that it had the intent and means to stop Ukraine from joining NATO, and yet the US kept promising. This was dangerous and escalatory, the West knew this (this is also the reason why France and Germany were originally against it when the US proposed this) and yet they kept promising. Even after Russia annexed Crimea and started fighting Ukraine in the east the US kept promising NATO, de facto forcing Russia to keep fighting. Even when Russia made it 100% explicit and clear, they would not take NATO of the table.

    This war was preventable, and further conflict is still preventable. But the US has shown that apparently Ukrainian lives are not worth a lot compared to their geo-strategic plans.

    And of course Russia doesn’t and didn’t have the right to invade Ukraine, but if the US are truly ‘the good guys’ then it’s time to act that way and find a peaceful solution (given the situation at hand).

    And finally, while it’s up to Ukrainians to decide in what kind of country they want to live, I can imagine they would rather live in a neutral country than a destroyed one.



  • If the West keeps escalating, at some point Russia has to respond to not loose credibility. The fact that western politicians are convinced they are morally right seems to blind them to this. Russia is capable of doing real damage and has thus far threatened but also shown restraint, clearly they do not want to escalate this beyond Ukraine. Nobody, not the West, not Ukraine, and not Russia, has an interest in WW3 but every day we seem to blindly walk closer and closer. Making it all the more astonishing that not more mainstream voices confront the harsh realpolitik of the current situation.